Future scenarios

Scenario development can help actors in a landscape understand the likely future outcomes of continuing ‘business-as-usual’. They can co-create possible future scenarios, with specific spatial assumptions, and more realistically consider the opportunities, barriers, tradeoffs and synergies of alternative pathways.

LPs that have the necessary resources can go further, with more formal, scenario modelling. This involves a more rigorous comparison of the possible outcomes of different scenarios using quantitative, data-based models. These models require clearly defined assumptions, for example, about economic and population trends, market demand, productivity of farm production, or the application of regulatory measures. The process requires the assistance of modelling specialists who are experienced in, and committed to, participatory modelling and sharing results with non-specialists.

The results of both (scenario development and scenario modelling) can be portrayed by comparing them through side-by-side comparisons of maps, tables or sketches, for stakeholder discussion.

Future scenarios Tools

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Soils Revealed

This is a platform (also mentioned in output 2.2) for visualizing how past and future management changes soil organic carbon stocks globally. The visualizations are based on soil data, information about the environment and computer simulations over time.

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Aqueduct Floods

This tool (also mentioned in output 2.2) measures and maps water-related flood risks around the world. It evaluates current and future risks of riverine and coastal flooding, taking into account the impacts that socioeconomic growth and climate change will have. It also allows users to conduct comprehensive cost-benefit analyses to evaluate the value of dike flood protection strategies.

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IPBES: The methodological assessment report on scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services

  • Analytical

This report from the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) provides robust future scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services for all regions of the world. Backed by a review of nearly 15000 scientific publications, this report aims to show how scenarios and models can support future decision making.

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Scenario Planning

  • Co-design

This tool uses stories of what could happen in the future with diverse stakeholders in order to help them decide jointly how they want to influence the future. It motivates people to challenge the status quo or get better at doing so by asking “What if?”

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Spatial modeling of participatory landscape scenarios: Synthesis and lessons learned from exploring potential SDG progress in 3 case studies

  • Report

This synthesis report from PBL, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, presents lessons drawn from a comparison of cases where spatially explicit modeling tools were applied in a participatory, multi-stakeholder fashion in three distinct landscape planning processes in Tanzania, Ghana and Honduras. The report shows how spatial modeling tools can help to increase awareness among stakeholders about landscape dynamics and the weight of drivers of landscape change and enhance our perception of how these drivers are affecting natural resources in a landscape and the people that depend on them. It also explains how spatial modeling of alternative future scenarios can be a catalyst for building landscape partnerships, and for bringing to the surface and refining stakeholder assumptions, analyses, and negotiations around strategy, production and resource management practices and spatial planning.

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Targeted Scenario Analysis (TSA)

  • Guide

TSA is an innovative approach that provides focused direction toward specific sustainable development policy and investment choices for public or private sector actors. It captures and presents the value and the contribution of ecosystem services to sectoral development within a decision-making framework, thereby helping make the business case for sustainable policy and investment choices.

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Theory U: 4D mapping

  • Analytical
  • Co-design

4D mapping makes visible the current reality in a social system, such as a school system, health care system or government. 4D mapping can be used with groups who are looking to gain new insights about their own system, and with clients who have a case they want to explore using this method.